When I received the book (that came among a collection of
great books) I thought it will help me get a few research ideas stick and take
me to another level. It has helped me in that sense. :)
It was an informative book, and although it was written in
1993 it felt very up to date. This feeling might be due to the fact that I feel
that I need to read more about decision making process and partly because I
strive to make the basic ideas of research more clear and relevant to research
laboratories. The fact that each chapter finishes with a set of conclusion that
offer some guidance in how to avoid the negative outcome of some biases is of
great help. For instance, concerning representativeness heuristic, I have to
take into account the tips offered (Plous, 1993, pag. 119):
- don’t be misled by highly detailed scenarios;
- whenever possible pay attention to base rates;
- remember that chance is not self-correcting; and
- Don’t misinterpret regression toward the mean (especially useful when considering that we all would like to have an exceptional performance all the time).
Another set of useful suggestion is that offered in relation
to probability and risk. I must remember to: - always think back at the actual
probability that something I envision in my future is only a desirable event
and it is no more probable than un undesirable but unforeseen event; and most
importantly perhaps to break compound events into small events in order to see
that is something has a small rate of probability or risk than an accumulation
of small events with their respective small risks might lead to catastrophes
(pag. 143-144).
The most relevant information to remember is that concerning
correlation, causation and control, and to remember to take into account the
illusory correlations and the invisible ones, after all, Holmes was very keen
on addressing things which ought to happen and failed to be seen, not just
sticking to the obvious events that might validate hypotheses.
There are many biases which seem to help or hinder us when
trying to go through this motion we call life. We may be entrapped in different
situations and fail to see the reward of exiting the situation just because we
have invested so much that we feel as we stand to lose too much. Many times the
decisions we take are not the most accurate by mathematical standards or prove
to be economical correct, yet they help us in everyday tasks and therefore
prove to be useful. After all, we have limited resources, cognitive and
otherwise, to make the best decisions we can make.